Carbon Dynamics and Land-Use Choices: Building a Regional-Scale Multidisciplinary Model

Policy enabling tropical forests to approach their potential contribution to global-climate-change mitigation requires forecasts of land use and carbon storage on a large scale over long periods. In this paper, we present an integrated modeling methodology that addresses these needs. We model the dynamics of the human land-use system and of C pools contained in each ecosystem, as well as their interactions. The model is national scale, and is currently applied in a preliminary way to Costa Rica using data spanning a period of over fifty years. It combines an ecological process model, parameterized using field and other data, with an economic model, estimated using historical data to ensure a close link to actual behavior. These two models are linked so that ecological conditions affect land-use choices and vice versa. The integrated model predicts land use and its consequences for C storage for policy scenarios. These predictions can be used to create baselines, reward sequestration, and estimate the value in both environmental and economic terms of including C sequestration in tropical forests as part of the efforts to mitigate global climate change. The model can also be used to assess the benefits from costly activities to increase accuracy and thus reduce errors and their societal costs.carbon, sequestration, climate change, land use, modelling

Minimizing Bias in Biomass Allometry: Model Selection and Log‐Transformation of Data

Nonlinear regression is increasingly used to develop allometric equations for forest biomass estimation (i.e., as opposed to the traditional approach of log‐transformation followed by linear regression). Most statistical software packages, however, assume additive errors by default, violating a key assumption of allometric theory and possibly producing spurious models. Here, we show that such models may bias stand‐level biomass estimates by up to 100 percent in young forests, and we present an alternative nonlinear fitting approach that conforms with allometric theory

Novel Forests Maintain Ecosystem Processes After the Decline of Native Tree Species

The positive relationship between species diversity (richness and evenness) and critical ecosystem functions, such as productivity, carbon storage, and nutrient cycling, is often used to predict the consequences of extinction. At regional scales, however, plant species richness is mostly increasing rather than decreasing because successful plant species introductions far outnumber extinctions. If these regional increases in richness lead to local increases in diversity, a reasonable prediction is that productivity, carbon storage, and nutrient cycling will increase following invasion, yet this prediction has rarely been tested empirically. We tested this prediction in novel forest communities dominated by introduced species (~90% basal area) in lowland Hawaiian rain forests by comparing their functionality to that of native forests. We conducted our comparison along a natural gradient of increasing nitrogen availability, allowing for a more detailed examination of the role of plant functional trait differences (specifically, N2 fixation) in driving possible changes to ecosystem function. Hawaii is emblematic of regional patterns of species change; it has much higher regional plant richness than it did historically, due to \u3e1000 plant species introductions and only ~71 known plant extinctions, resulting in an ~100% increase in richness. At local scales, we found that novel forests had significantly higher tree species richness and higher diversity of dominant tree species. We further found that aboveground biomass, productivity, nutrient turnover (as measured by soil-available and litter-cycled nitrogen and phosphorus), and belowground carbon storage either did not differ significantly or were significantly greater in novel relative to native forests. We found that the addition of introduced N2-fixing tree species on N-limited substrates had the strongest effect on ecosystem function, a pattern found by previous empirical tests. Our results support empirical predictions of the functional effects of diversity, but they also suggest basic ecosystem processes will continue even after dramatic losses of native species diversity if simple functional roles are provided by introduced species. Because large portions of the Earth\u27s surface are undergoing similar transitions from native to novel ecosystems, our results are likely to be broadly applicable

Effects of deforestation and land use on biomass, carbon, and nutrient pools in the Los Tuxtlas Region, Mexico

Land-use change in forested regions of the tropics is currently one of the largest anthropogenic perturbations on earth; it is a force capable of altering biogeochemical cycles at local, regional, and global scales. However, significant uncertainties exist concerning the impact of land-use change on biomass and elemental pools of tropical forests. To evaluate the response of biomass and elemental pools to deforestation and land-use in the Los Tuxtlas Region, Mexico, total aboveground biomass (TAGB), C, N, S, and P pools were quantified along a land-use gradient that included primary forests, pastures, cornfields, and secondary forests. TAGB of primary forests averaged 403 Mg/ha; pastures and cornfields averaged 24 and 23 Mg/ha, respectively. Conversion of primary forests to pastures or cornfields resulted in declines of 94% of aboveground C pools, 92% of aboveground N, 83% of aboveground P, and between 89% and 95% of aboveground S. Soil pools of C, N, and S did not differ significantly between primary forests, pastures, and cornfields. Soil C to a 1 m depth ranged from 166-210 Mg/ha; N and S ranged from 16,O00-2O,000 kg/ha and 340O-38OO kg/ha, respectively. In secondary forests, TAGB increased with increasing forest age; accumulations ranged from 4.8 Mg/ha in a 6-month- old site to 287 Mg/ha in a 50-year-old site. Results indicate that secondary forests will attain the equivalent of primary forest TAGB in 73 years. However, rates of TAGB accumulation were constrained by land-use history; rates decreased with increasing duration of land use prior to abandonment. Soil pools of secondary forests were not correlated to forest age or prior land-use history and did not differ significantly from soil pools of primary forests, pastures, or cornfields. As a group, soils of primary and old secondary forest sites had significantly larger pools of available N and higher rates of nitrification and N mineralization than the combined group of pastures, cornfields, and recently abandoned sites. Currently, the Los Tuxtias Region functions as a net source of greenhouse gases. Regenerating secondary forests have the capacity to counterbalance emissions resulting from deforestation, but presently constitute only a small percentage of the the regional landscape

Limited native plant regeneration in novel, exotic-dominated forests on Hawai’i

Ecological invasions are a major driver of global environmental change. When invasions are frequent and prolonged, exotic species can become dominant and ultimately create novel ecosystem types. These ecosystems are now widespread globally. Recent evidence from Puerto Rico suggests that exotic-dominated forests can provide suitable regeneration sites for native species and promote native species abundance, but this pattern has been little explored elsewhere. We surveyed 46 sites in Hawai’i to determine whether native species occurred in the understories of exotic-dominated forests. Native trees smaller than 10 cm in diameter were absent in 28 of the 46 sites and rare in the others. Natives were never the dominant understory species; in fact, they accounted for less than 10% of understory basal area at all but six sites, and less than 4% on average. Sites with native species in the understory tended to be on young lava substrate lacking human disturbance, and were mostly located close to intact, native-dominated forest stands. Even where we found some native species, however, most were survivors of past exotic encroachment into native forest, rather than products of active recolonization by native species. In contrast with successional trajectories in Puerto Rico, Hawaii\u27s exotic-dominated forests can emerge, via invasion, without human disturbance and native Hawaiian plants are largely unable to colonize them once they appear. We suggest that a wide diversity of growth strategies among the exotic species on Hawai’i may limit the opportunities for native plants to colonize exotic-dominated forests

(In)formalization and the civilizing process : applying the work of Norbert Elias to housing-based anti-social behaviour interventions in the UK

This paper uses Norbert Elias's theory of the civilizing process to examine trends in social conduct in the UK and to identify how problematic “anti‐social” behaviour is conceptualized and governed through housing‐based mechanisms of intervention. The paper describes how Elias's concepts of the formalization and informalization of conduct and the construction of established and outsider groups provide an analytical framework for understanding social relations. It continues by discussing how de‐civilizing processes are also evident in contemporary society, and are applied to current policy discourse around Respect and anti‐social behaviour. The paper uses the governance of “anti‐social” conduct through housing mechanisms in the UK to critique the work of Elias and concludes by arguing that a revised concept of the civilizing process provides a useful analytical framework for future studies

Regional employment and individual worklessness during the Great Recession and the health of the working-age population: cross-national analysis of 16 European countries

Studies from single countries suggest that local labour market conditions, including rates of employment, tend to be associated with the health of the populations residing in those areas, even after adjustment for individual characteristics including employment status. The aim of this study is to strengthen the cross-national evidence base on the influence of regional employment levels and individual worklessness on health during the period of the Great Recession. We investigate whether higher regional employment levels are associated with better health over and above individual level employment. Individual level data (N = 23,078 aged 15–64 years) were taken from 16 countries (Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and United Kingdom) participating in the 2014 European Social Survey. Regional employment rates were extracted from Eurostat, corresponding with the start (2008) and end (2013) of the Great Recession. Health outcomes included self-reported heart or circulation problems, high blood pressure, diabetes, self-rated health, depression, obesity and allergies (as a falsification test). We calculated multilevel Poisson regression models, which included individuals nested within regions, controlling for potential confounding variables and country fixed effects. After adjustment for individual level socio-demographic factors, higher average regional employment rates (from 2008 to 2013) were associated with better health outcomes. Individual level worklessness was associated with worsened health outcomes, most strongly with poor self-rated health. In models including both individual worklessness and the average regional employment rate, regional employment remained associated with heart and circulation problems, depression and obesity. There was evidence of an interaction between individual worklessness and regional employment for poor self-rated health and depression. The findings suggest that across 16 European countries, for some key outcomes, higher levels of employment in the regional labour market may be beneficial for the health of the local population

Platypus globin genes and flanking loci suggest a new insertional model for beta-globin evolution in birds and mammals

Background: Vertebrate alpha (α)- and beta (β)-globin gene families exemplify the way in which genomes evolve to produce functional complexity. From tandem duplication of a single globin locus, the α- and β-globin clusters expanded, and then were separated onto different chromosomes. The previous finding of a fossil β-globin gene (ω) in the marsupial α-cluster, however, suggested that duplication of the α-β cluster onto two chromosomes, followed by lineage-specific gene loss and duplication, produced paralogous α- and β-globin clusters in birds and mammals. Here we analyse genomic data from an egg-laying monotreme mammal, the platypus (Ornithorhynchus anatinus), to explore haemoglobin evolution at the stem of the mammalian radiation. Results: The platypus α-globin cluster (chromosome 21) contains embryonic and adult α- globin genes, a β-like ω-globin gene, and the GBY globin gene with homology to cytoglobin, arranged as 5'-ζ-ζ'-αD-α3-α2-α1-ω-GBY-3'. The platypus β-globin cluster (chromosome 2) contains single embryonic and adult globin genes arranged as 5'-ε-β-3'. Surprisingly, all of these globin genes were expressed in some adult tissues. Comparison of flanking sequences revealed that all jawed vertebrate α-globin clusters are flanked by MPG-C16orf35 and LUC7L, whereas all bird and mammal β-globin clusters are embedded in olfactory genes. Thus, the mammalian α- and β-globin clusters are orthologous to the bird α- and β-globin clusters respectively. Conclusion: We propose that α- and β-globin clusters evolved from an ancient MPG-C16orf35-α-β-GBY-LUC7L arrangement 410 million years ago. A copy of the original β (represented by ω in marsupials and monotremes) was inserted into an array of olfactory genes before the amniote radiation (>315 million years ago), then duplicated and diverged to form orthologous clusters of β-globin genes with different expression profiles in different lineages.Vidushi S. Patel, Steven J.B. Cooper, Janine E. Deakin, Bob Fulton, Tina Graves, Wesley C. Warren, Richard K. Wilson and Jennifer A.M. Grave

Factors influencing success of clinical genome sequencing across a broad spectrum of disorders

To assess factors influencing the success of whole-genome sequencing for mainstream clinical diagnosis, we sequenced 217 individuals from 156 independent cases or families across a broad spectrum of disorders in whom previous screening had identified no pathogenic variants. We quantified the number of candidate variants identified using different strategies for variant calling, filtering, annotation and prioritization. We found that jointly calling variants across samples, filtering against both local and external databases, deploying multiple annotation tools and using familial transmission above biological plausibility contributed to accuracy. Overall, we identified disease-causing variants in 21% of cases, with the proportion increasing to 34% (23/68) for mendelian disorders and 57% (8/14) in family trios. We also discovered 32 potentially clinically actionable variants in 18 genes unrelated to the referral disorder, although only 4 were ultimately considered reportable. Our results demonstrate the value of genome sequencing for routine clinical diagnosis but also highlight many outstanding challenges